Daniel Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants have been the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 42.5% run rate.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to accumulate 5.8 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (21.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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