Daniel Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
Daniel Jones has averaged 6.7 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in football among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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