Daniel Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+272/-459).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -407 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -459.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.91 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to be a more important option in his team's run game near the goal line this week (23.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
Daniel Jones has run for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among QBs (95th percentile).
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.