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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers

Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+392/-824).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -687 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -824.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 46.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Daniel Jones has rushed for 0.17 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (81st percentile).

The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 29th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (17.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.1% in games he has played).

The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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