Daniel Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-476).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -427 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -476.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Daniel Jones isn't afraid to be involved in the run game near the goal line, accounting for 25.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (91st percentile among quarterbacks).
Daniel Jones has rushed for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (89th percentile).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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