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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-413).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +282 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +253.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
  • The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
  • Daniel Jones isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the end zone, accounting for 22.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (92nd percentile among QBs).
  • Daniel Jones has run for 0.27 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among quarterbacks (89th percentile).
  • The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
  • Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.50 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
  • The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
  • The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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