Daniel Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+244/-392).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -354 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -392.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
Daniel Jones isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 20.8% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (83rd percentile among quarterbacks).
Daniel Jones has rushed for 0.30 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among QBs (92nd percentile).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The New York Giants have incorporated motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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