Daniel Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Passing Yards

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 230.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (244.0 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
The Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.47 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
The Seahawks safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Daniel Jones is forecasted by the projection model to total the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 33.5.
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the worst per-play QBs in the league this year, averaging just 6.15 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 24th percentile.

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