Daniel Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Passing Yards

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 194.5 (-101/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 194.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 194.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.59 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the league.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.4 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.