Daniel Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Completions

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.50 seconds per play.
Daniel Jones has been among the most accurate QBs in the league this year with a terrific 67.5% Completion%, checking in at the 94th percentile.
The New York Giants have utilized play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL against the Washington Commanders defense this year (68.5%).
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.