Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 3, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
Daniel Bellinger has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Daniel Bellinger has been among the most effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging an impressive 8.69 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
The Seahawks defense has been torched for the most receiving yards per game in football (71.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
The Seahawks pass defense has displayed weak efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 10.04 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Daniel Bellinger has been less involved as a potential target this year (28.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (65.9%).
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Daniel Bellinger has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 2nd percentile.