Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.6 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Daniel Bellinger to be much more involved in his team's passing attack in this week's contest (12.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).
With a remarkable 9.3 adjusted yards per target (88th percentile) this year, Daniel Bellinger stands as one of the leading TE receiving threats in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
Daniel Bellinger's 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a remarkable decrease in his receiving ability over last season's 27.0 rate.
Daniel Bellinger's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 91.2% to 85.0%.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Daniel Bellinger rates among the leading TEs in the pass game in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.