Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.74 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-most in the league.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.