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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

In this contest, D'Andre Swift is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.2 rush attempts.

D'Andre Swift has been a more integral piece of his offense's ground game this season (61.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (49.3%).

With an impressive record of 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (78th percentile), D'Andre Swift ranks among the top pure runners in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a giant 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are projected by the projection model to run just 64.3 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.

D'Andre Swift's running efficiency (3.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (14th percentile among running backs).

D'Andre Swift has been one of the weakest running backs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.45 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 9th percentile.

The opposing side have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 98.0 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.

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