D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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