D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
D'Andre Swift's rushing effectiveness has gotten better this season, totaling 5.58 yards-per-carry vs just 3.76 rate last season.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this year (25.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (50.3%).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.17 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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