D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
D'Andre Swift's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, totaling 5.79 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.76 rate last season.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D'Andre Swift has been a much smaller part of his offense's running game this year (23.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (50.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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