D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:16 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in run blocking.
D'Andre Swift's rushing efficiency has gotten better this season, accumulating 6.11 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.76 rate last season.
D'Andre Swift has been among the best RBs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.31 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 77th percentile.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
D'Andre Swift has been a less important option in his offense's run game this year (23.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (50.3%).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

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