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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

D'Andre Swift Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-405).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -231 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -405.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 45.2% red zone run rate.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.

D'Andre Swift has rushed for 0.43 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (88th percentile).

The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to be much less involved in his team's run game near the goal line this week (27.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (40.8% in games he has played).

Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-least TDs in football (0.83 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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