D'Andre Swift Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1011).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1006 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1011.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions have been the 10th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 47.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
D'Andre Swift has run for 0.38 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among running backs (82nd percentile).
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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