D'Andre Swift Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+149/-211).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +162 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 44.4% red zone run rate.
D'Andre Swift has been given 45.0% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has run for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (85th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most TDs in football (1.06 per game) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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