D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast D'Andre Swift to total 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift slots into the 90th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 18.9 mark this year.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
This year, the daunting Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a feeble 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Dallas's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the league.