D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.0 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.0 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D'Andre Swift has run a route on 65.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to garner 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift has been among the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.6% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.1%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (75.1%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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