D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

My Account Log Out

reorder

D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+128/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to total 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
D'Andre Swift's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D'Andre Swift's receiving performance has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 3.1 yards per game vs 4.8 last season.

More D'Andre Swift Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow