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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+128/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -173.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to total 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.

The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

D'Andre Swift's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 27.5.

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

D'Andre Swift's receiving performance has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 3.1 yards per game vs 4.8 last season.

More D'Andre Swift Player Props

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