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D'Andre Swift
NFL · Player Props
D'Andre Swift
RB · Detroit Lions
Receptions
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022 Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:51 AM UTC
NFL Props D'Andre Swift Receptions

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+128/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -173.

Favors Over
  • The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to total 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
  • The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.
  • The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
  • D'Andre Swift's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 27.5.
  • The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • D'Andre Swift's receiving performance has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 3.1 yards per game vs 4.8 last season.
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