D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to garner 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been much less involved in his offense's passing attack this season (13.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (18.3%).
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
D'Andre Swift's receiving skills have tailed off this year, averaging a measly 3.1 yards per game compared to 4.8 last year.
D'Andre Swift's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 74.7%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.1%) versus running backs this year (75.1%).

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