D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-128/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) against the Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
The model projects D'Andre Swift to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
D'Andre Swift's 81.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 75.9% rate.
D'Andre Swift's talent in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, compiling 16.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 6.96 figure last year.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
D'Andre Swift has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing game this year (9.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (14.4%).
As it relates to air yards, D'Andre Swift grades out in the measly 15th percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -4.0 per game.

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