D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast D'Andre Swift to accumulate 3.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
D'Andre Swift's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a measly 1.27 yards-per-target vs a 6.54 figure last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 25.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.