D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast D'Andre Swift to total 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
As it relates to air yards, D'Andre Swift grades out in the towering 81st percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a monstrous 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Eagles grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.
D'Andre Swift's 60.8% Snap% this season indicates a significant boost in his offensive utilization over last season's 41.6% figure.
D'Andre Swift's 21.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 29.0 figure.
D'Andre Swift's 5.7 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a material diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 6.5 rate.