D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect D'Andre Swift to total 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has compiled a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.
D'Andre Swift's 88.2% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 75.9% rate.
D'Andre Swift's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 9.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 6.96 mark last year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.
D'Andre Swift's 60.5% snap rate this season shows a meaningful gain in his offensive workload over last season's 41.6% mark.
D'Andre Swift's 20.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates an impressive decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 29.0 mark.