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D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accrue 2.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.D'Andre Swift has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 14.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.D'Andre Swift has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a mere 75.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile.The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.1%) to running backs since the start of last season (77.1%).
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