D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to total 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift has accrued a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has not been good when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
D'Andre Swift's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D'Andre Swift has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).

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