D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accumulate 4.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has posted a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
D'Andre Swift's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, accumulating 9.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 7.73 mark last season.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (83.4%) versus RBs this year (83.4%).

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
D'Andre Swift's 21.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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