D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accrue 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift has posted a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

D'Andre Swift has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this year (13.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.3%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
D'Andre Swift has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
D'Andre Swift's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 75.2%.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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