D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to total 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift has notched a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
D'Andre Swift's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, averaging 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 7.73 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
D'Andre Swift's 21.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
D'Andre Swift has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
D'Andre Swift's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 81.5% to 72.7%.

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