D'Andre Swift Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-989).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +434.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
D'Andre Swift has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
D'Andre Swift grades out in the 98th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.40 per game.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
D'Andre Swift's 19.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 27.5.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
D'Andre Swift's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 75.9%.