Damien Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-109/-131).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.1% run rate.
Damien Harris has garnered 51.5% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Damien Harris has averaged 58.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (89th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding 4.88 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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