Damien Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Damien Harris has received 51.6% of his team's carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Damien Harris has grinded out 58.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 60.3 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.