Damien Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 39.7% run rate.
Damien Harris has been given 52.1% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Damien Harris has generated 59.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).
Damien Harris's rushing effectiveness (4.66 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (80th percentile among running backs).

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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