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Damien Harris

Damien Harris Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears

Damien Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+179/-259).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -249 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -259.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.6% red zone run rate.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Damien Harris has run for 0.60 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (92nd percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the most touchdowns in football (1.50 per game) against the Chicago Bears defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Damien Harris to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (43.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.1% in games he has played).

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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