Damien Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 10th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 43.7% red zone run rate.
Damien Harris has been given 63.6% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Damien Harris has run for 0.75 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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