Damien Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-271).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +199 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.2% red zone run rate.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Damien Harris has run for 0.89 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (98th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Damien Harris to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (52.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.5% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the league (0.70 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.