Damien Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-343).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +261 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +219.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 9th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 49.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Damien Harris has been given 40.9% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Damien Harris has run for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.20 per game) vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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