Damien Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 43.9% red zone run rate.
Damien Harris has been given 57.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Damien Harris has rushed for 0.94 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (98th percentile).
The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.