Damien Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 12, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Damien Harris has compiled a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The New York Jets pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.60 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (74%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (74.0%).

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