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Damien Harris

Damien Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Damien Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New England Patriots will be forced to use backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Damien Harris has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among running backs, catching an impressive 90.1% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Damien Harris's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, notching 11.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 4.67 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Damien Harris's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 4.43 yards-per-target compared to a 6.53 rate last year.

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