Damien Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Damien Harris has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a terrific 91.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (44.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed weak efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, allowing 7.85 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
Damien Harris has put up a puny 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.