Damien Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Damien Harris to be much less involved in his offense's running game this week (24.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (40.9% in games he has played).

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