Damien Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Damien Harris

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Damien Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Damien Harris to accumulate 15.2 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Damien Harris has received 52.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots will be forced to use backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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