Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 6:16 PM EST

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-118/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Dameon Pierce to earn 14.3 carries in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Dameon Pierce to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game in this game (48.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.2% in games he has played).
The Houston O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year in run-blocking.
Dameon Pierce has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Dameon Pierce's ground efficiency has declined this year, averaging a measly 3.02 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 mark last year.

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