Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.8% run rate.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Dameon Pierce to total 16.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Dameon Pierce has picked up 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).

Favors Under

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dameon Pierce has been a much smaller part of his team's ground game this year (60.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (77.3%).
The Texans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
Dameon Pierce's ground effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 2.54 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 rate last season.

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